![]() ![]() Regardless, those days of potential triumph are gone-and this is central to Beijing’s own calculus of deterrence. It is unclear if the United States could have ever assumed a quick and easy victory. military capabilities in what would be the theater of any such conflict. diplomat with long experience on the Taiwan issue once observed that Washington itself was probably the only one of the three parties that was unsure what the United States would do in such a scenario.) Perhaps more importantly, Washington’s ability to intervene credibly and effectively has eroded considerably over the past several decades because of the relative trends in Chinese, Taiwan, and U.S. “strategic clarity” would enhance Taiwan’s security by reinforcing deterrence of Beijing is almost certainly wrong because Chinese leaders-like their Taiwan counterparts-have long presumed and planned that the United States would intervene militarily in response to a Chinese use of force against the island. response may sound compelling, but it is dangerous because it is based on specious premises, highly selective perceptions, probable miscalculation, and inattention to (or ignorance of) history.įirst, the notion that U.S. This prevailing narrative of Chinese aggression and the requisite U.S. According to Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass and CFR Research Fellow David Sacks, this “should strengthen U.S.-Chinese relations in the long term by improving deterrence and reducing the chances of war in the Taiwan Strait.” intervention to protect Taiwan from a Chinese attack, in favor of “strategic clarity”: by making an explicit public commitment to defend Taiwan in such a contingency. In addition, calls have arisen for Washington to abandon its longstanding policy of “strategic ambiguity” on potential U.S. In recent weeks, Secretary of Health and Human Service Alex Azar and Undersecretary of State Keith Krach have visited Taiwan, the Trump administration has announced new arms sales to the island, and Members of Congress have tabled multiple bills that would strengthen American material and moral support for Taiwan’s self-determination. Washington has responded by reaffirming and taking steps to bolster its “unofficial” relationship with Taiwan and its support for Taiwan’s security and involvement in international organizations.
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